The running quarterback: The hype in Madden, the biggest story of a rookie last season and this season in the NFL, and now, the future of the NFL? The college shotgun offenses have started the trend of quarterbacks that can really use their legs to be a threat to defenses, and we've now seen two beneficiaries of these systems make a big splash in the NFL. With running quarterbacks starting to appear in abundance, it's natural to think that the running quarterback could be the new normal in the pros.
Is the pocket passer a dying breed? Let's break down the stats and find out.
Let's start by looking at the only active long-term running quarterback, Michael Vick. We're going to compare him with the active quarterbacks from the 99-03 draft classes, namely: Tom Brady ('00), Drew Brees ('01), and Carson Palmer ('03); with the recently retired Donovan McNabb ('99) added there for extra depth. I've balanced these stats by bringing everyone down to 9 seasons (including the current season) by cutting their best and worst year compared to the league based on the quarterback rating index by year, with an average year taken out if the number of seasons I needed to cut was odd, so we see a better representation of their average performance.
(Big full graph down at the bottom)
Quick explanation of the index rates(marked with a '+'): These are ratings based on all quarterbacks in a given year where 100 is the average for the statistic. For example, the Sack % + (sack percentage rate) shows McNabb with a 94 rating and Brady with a 109 rating, meaning McNabb's sack percentage per attempt is higher than the league average, and that Brady's was lower. For everything other than Sack%+ and Int%+, higher is better ratings wise.
The first thing that jumps out at you looking at Vick is that his passing stats just are not good in comparison with his peers, especially in completion percentage (lowest), net yards per attempt, and the lowest index rate of his quaterback rating (Rate+), and highest sack rate. Stats that stand out for him include yards per completion, and a phenomenal rushing average of 6.7 yards per attempt. What you don't see on this graph is his number of passings TD's (117) which does not compare favorably with anyone in this draft group, where even when you lump in his 33 career rushing touch downs, he is still behind the next lowest of the group, Carson Palmer (173).
What these statistics say is that Vick's running game and passing ability do not make him a better quarterback, they combine to make him a lower middle-tier quarterback. Combine these stats with his injury risk that you have to take into account at any given time, and he loses his middle tier rank and would be what I qualify as bottom tier quarterback compared to his draft classmates from two years prior and after his draft year.
Next, let's look at the new guard of Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III.
Glancing at these stats and at the main graph (at the bottom), Cam Newton shows some pretty big statistical flaws that are bad indicators. Newton's completion percentage isn't far above Vick's, he's got the highest sack percentage of any QB this statistic analysis was run on outside of Ben Roethlisberger (7.5% to 8.2%) and his numbers are below the average of 100 on every rate index other the yards per attempt categories, where his above-average 8.15 yards per attempt and 13.75 yards per completion rank up there with Rodgers, Brady, and Roethlisberger. When you factor in his 17 career rushing TD's to date, you can see some potential if he can boost important numbers like his win percentage and his sack percentage, which better decision making and maturity can definitely bring to the table. But based on his current statistics, he is not a solid quarterback.
How about Robert Griffin III? Is RG3 a lucky rookie on a fluke so far? The stats actually say the exact opposite. So far this season (and yes, we're only six games in, so these stats have not stood the test of time), Griffin is doing work with a 70% completion rate, 8.3 yards per attempt, and a rock solid 1.2% interception percentage. What I want to really highlight is the previously mentioned rate index stats, which display all the quarterbacks against each other in a given season. Griffin has astounding numbers here, where he is over 120 in 5 categories (Yards-, Adjusted Yards-, and Adjusted Net Yards-per Attempt Rate Index, Sack Percentage Index and Quarterback Rating Index [old QBR, not the the new ESPN TQBR]), over 115 in 2 categories with him lagging in the TD% and Sack % rate indices. With 6 rushing TD's to accompany that, I think RG3 is showing super potential and if he maintains even 80% of his current drive, he will be phenomenal. His stats show him as an above average quarterback, and his play so far supports that. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain these statistics, and if he can stay healthy all season.
We broke all these statistics down to discuss if the running quarterback will be the new normal, and an NFL GM or coach can't look at these statistics and say yes. Vick doesn't show the numbers or the health, Newton can't win games or throw well enough, and while Griffin III displays some great numbers, he's already had a concussion and we have not seen what a full season produces from him. When it comes to statistics, the numbers say a pocket quarterback is statistically a winner, and maybe this has a lot to do with the difference between talents and skills. Colin Cowherd recently noted on his show that the difference between a player like a Newton or RG3 (talent) vs. a Brady or Brees (skill) is that the talented players try to use their talents whenever they feel trouble, where a skilled player uses his system and his team to push through a problem. I feel this is definitely correct, because a running quarterback can definitely be pressured to use his talents instead of rely on his strategy or buying time to let a play develop. Mike Shanahan and Ron Rivera have been lauded for designing running plays for the their quarterbacks and then letting them call run or pass, but these decisions in the case of Newton have not made him better as a player, they have only increased his willingness to use his talents to force a situation. If Griffin can continue making solid play decisions, he will able to continue to achieve amazing results and may show a model for how to succeed as a running quarterback. But until a player can show consistency, stay healthy, and win a championship (the watershed moment), the running quarterback is still a gimmick after college years.
(I compiled these statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com, they've got some great tools for building stats)
Is the pocket passer a dying breed? Let's break down the stats and find out.
 |
| '99-'03 Draft Class 9 Season Weighted Stats |
(Big full graph down at the bottom)
Quick explanation of the index rates(marked with a '+'): These are ratings based on all quarterbacks in a given year where 100 is the average for the statistic. For example, the Sack % + (sack percentage rate) shows McNabb with a 94 rating and Brady with a 109 rating, meaning McNabb's sack percentage per attempt is higher than the league average, and that Brady's was lower. For everything other than Sack%+ and Int%+, higher is better ratings wise.
The first thing that jumps out at you looking at Vick is that his passing stats just are not good in comparison with his peers, especially in completion percentage (lowest), net yards per attempt, and the lowest index rate of his quaterback rating (Rate+), and highest sack rate. Stats that stand out for him include yards per completion, and a phenomenal rushing average of 6.7 yards per attempt. What you don't see on this graph is his number of passings TD's (117) which does not compare favorably with anyone in this draft group, where even when you lump in his 33 career rushing touch downs, he is still behind the next lowest of the group, Carson Palmer (173).
What these statistics say is that Vick's running game and passing ability do not make him a better quarterback, they combine to make him a lower middle-tier quarterback. Combine these stats with his injury risk that you have to take into account at any given time, and he loses his middle tier rank and would be what I qualify as bottom tier quarterback compared to his draft classmates from two years prior and after his draft year.
 |
| Newton and Giffin III Career Stats |
Glancing at these stats and at the main graph (at the bottom), Cam Newton shows some pretty big statistical flaws that are bad indicators. Newton's completion percentage isn't far above Vick's, he's got the highest sack percentage of any QB this statistic analysis was run on outside of Ben Roethlisberger (7.5% to 8.2%) and his numbers are below the average of 100 on every rate index other the yards per attempt categories, where his above-average 8.15 yards per attempt and 13.75 yards per completion rank up there with Rodgers, Brady, and Roethlisberger. When you factor in his 17 career rushing TD's to date, you can see some potential if he can boost important numbers like his win percentage and his sack percentage, which better decision making and maturity can definitely bring to the table. But based on his current statistics, he is not a solid quarterback.
How about Robert Griffin III? Is RG3 a lucky rookie on a fluke so far? The stats actually say the exact opposite. So far this season (and yes, we're only six games in, so these stats have not stood the test of time), Griffin is doing work with a 70% completion rate, 8.3 yards per attempt, and a rock solid 1.2% interception percentage. What I want to really highlight is the previously mentioned rate index stats, which display all the quarterbacks against each other in a given season. Griffin has astounding numbers here, where he is over 120 in 5 categories (Yards-, Adjusted Yards-, and Adjusted Net Yards-per Attempt Rate Index, Sack Percentage Index and Quarterback Rating Index [old QBR, not the the new ESPN TQBR]), over 115 in 2 categories with him lagging in the TD% and Sack % rate indices. With 6 rushing TD's to accompany that, I think RG3 is showing super potential and if he maintains even 80% of his current drive, he will be phenomenal. His stats show him as an above average quarterback, and his play so far supports that. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain these statistics, and if he can stay healthy all season.
We broke all these statistics down to discuss if the running quarterback will be the new normal, and an NFL GM or coach can't look at these statistics and say yes. Vick doesn't show the numbers or the health, Newton can't win games or throw well enough, and while Griffin III displays some great numbers, he's already had a concussion and we have not seen what a full season produces from him. When it comes to statistics, the numbers say a pocket quarterback is statistically a winner, and maybe this has a lot to do with the difference between talents and skills. Colin Cowherd recently noted on his show that the difference between a player like a Newton or RG3 (talent) vs. a Brady or Brees (skill) is that the talented players try to use their talents whenever they feel trouble, where a skilled player uses his system and his team to push through a problem. I feel this is definitely correct, because a running quarterback can definitely be pressured to use his talents instead of rely on his strategy or buying time to let a play develop. Mike Shanahan and Ron Rivera have been lauded for designing running plays for the their quarterbacks and then letting them call run or pass, but these decisions in the case of Newton have not made him better as a player, they have only increased his willingness to use his talents to force a situation. If Griffin can continue making solid play decisions, he will able to continue to achieve amazing results and may show a model for how to succeed as a running quarterback. But until a player can show consistency, stay healthy, and win a championship (the watershed moment), the running quarterback is still a gimmick after college years.
(I compiled these statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com, they've got some great tools for building stats)
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| 14 QB Weighted Statistics |
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